Part 6: The Free World Must Prevail
Following this series of posts based on Leopold Aschenbrenner ’s original article https://situational-awareness.ai/ and in its part “IIId. The Free World Must Prevail”, he comments that superintelligence could have as profound an impact on global politics and security as nuclear weapons.
This article is a detailed analysis of the concerns raised in the original text, which argues that artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy can determine not only the economic but also the military and geopolitical future of nations. Below, I review the key points of the report and offer some additional reflections.
Superintelligence: A Decisive Weapon
The report begins by stressing that superintelligence will be the “most powerful technology and weapon” ever developed by humans.
The reason for such a claim lies in its potential to transform warfare and economics on a global scale. The military advantage offered by superintelligence could overwhelm any traditional deterrent, such as nuclear weapons. In fact, the text suggests that only a small advance in this field would be enough to completely change the balance of power between nations. A couple of years of superintelligence advantage could offer such overwhelming power that it could be compared to the technological superiority that the United States had in the Gulf War, where a 20-30 year advantage in technology allowed a victory with almost no casualties.
“Superintelligence will be the most powerful technology and weapon that humanity has ever developed.”
The most worrying aspect of this scenario is that superintelligence would not only accelerate the development of more powerful weapons of mass destruction, but could also facilitate exponential economic growth, giving a productivity advantage to the nations that lead the race. This massive development of technologies could include advances in superhuman hacking, robotic weapons, and new forms of economic control through mass automation of the workforce.
The Risk of Authoritarian Powers: China on the Run
One of the most worrying issues addressed in the report is the rise of authoritarian powers, such as China, in the race for superintelligence. Although many in the West still underestimate China in this area, the report warns of its rapid mobilization capabilities to build the technological infrastructure needed to develop superintelligence. Despite the chip and advanced technology constraints it faces, China could overcome these obstacles by manufacturing smaller chips (7nm) and stealing key algorithms and designs from the West.
“If and when the Chinese Communist Party mobilizes in the race toward general AI, the picture could start to look very different.”
This ability to replicate and steal technological advances, rather than developing them from scratch, could allow China to quickly achieve parity or even superiority in the race for superintelligence.
The Power of Superintelligence in Authoritarian Regimes
Superintelligence is not just a matter of military or economic advantage; it also represents a challenge to freedom and democracy around the world. In the hands of an authoritarian regime, superintelligence could become a tool of total control. Dictators, using advanced AI capabilities, would have the power to eliminate any internal opposition, from resistance movements to political dissent. Furthermore, surveillance and control technologies, enabled by AI, could make any form of rebellion or protest impossible.
“Superintelligence will give those who wield it the power to crush opposition, dissent and set their grand plan for humanity.”
This use of superintelligence as a means of consolidating authoritarian power is one of the report’s major concerns. The democratic values of error correction and adaptability, which allow societies to evolve and improve, would be eliminated under a regime that relies on the absolute stability provided by AI.
The Need for American Leadership
The report underscores the importance of democracies, led by the United States, maintaining a significant lead in the race for superintelligence. Without clear leadership, democracies risk losing the ability to adequately control and regulate this technology. The report notes that a “healthy” lead in superintelligence is crucial to implementing global security measures, preventing the proliferation of new weapons, and enabling international cooperation to curb technological spinoffs.
“The main—and perhaps only—hope we have is that an alliance of democracies will have a healthy advantage over the opposing powers.”
In addition, American leadership would allow for the creation of a nonproliferation regime, ensuring that superintelligence does not fall into the hands of malicious actors, such as terrorists or dictators. The superintelligence advantage would also provide leeway to make critical decisions without the pressure of a race to the bottom.
The Risk of a Global Conflict
The report also raises an alarming scenario of a possible world war. The convergence of the timelines of AGI development and China’s military readiness to invade Taiwan could lead to a situation of global conflict. This world war scenario could be amplified by competition in the AGI race, creating global pressure to make quick and risky decisions, which could escalate to all-out war.
“There is already a disturbing convergence between the IGA timelines (~2027) and the Taiwan invasion timelines.”
Conclusion: Prioritizing Global Security
The report reminds us of the urgency for the United States and its allies to take decisive action to lead the race for superintelligence. Without a clear advantage, democracies could be threatened by the advance of authoritarian regimes that would use AI as a means of control. The creation of a security and nonproliferation regime is essential to ensure that this powerful technology is used ethically and for the benefit of all humanity.
To avoid a dystopian future, it is vital that governments prioritize security and international cooperation in the field of artificial intelligence. Only through a strategy of joint leadership and constant vigilance can democracies ensure a free and secure future for generations to come.